Replacing Russian oil and gas supplies complicate already difficult energy environment in Germany.
With most Russian energy supplies to Germany cut off as a consequence of the Russia/Ukraine war, the ability of Germany and other nations in Europe to survive the upcoming winter is very much in doubt. The choices facing Europe in the absence of Russian gas are simple: alternate fossil fuel supplies, alternates, conservation or new domestic fossil fuel production. All have financial and economic costs, and all have political detractors who want to simultaneously achieve net zero CO2 emissions targets, while keeping the lights on this winter. Is it possible? Jim Anderton comments.
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Episode Transcript:
It’s December now, and in Europe, to my surprise, there is still a war going on. And, as I stand here, it looks like that war’s going to go on for quite a while longer. The history buffs among you will recall that Ukraine has cold winters, but more importantly, a couple of transition seasons in the spring and fall where rains and mud slow mechanized armies to a crawl. Things pick up again when the ground freezes in the fall, at which point many expect renewed Russian attacks.
For the civilian population of central Europe, this means two things: continued instability in global energy pricing and no foreseeable future where Russian energy supplies return in volume to Europe. Depending on your perspective, this is either good, or bad but from a simple engineering perspective, the immediate solution to the energy problem can only come from four pathways: conservation, alternate import supplies, domestic fossil fuel production and alternate energy sources.
In terms of conservation, the low hanging fruit was picked years ago, and there is simply no way to significantly reduce energy consumption with the traditional techniques like better building insulation or older vehicle scrappage schemes.
Alternate energy has been ramping for years in Europe, as Green parties, especially in Germany, have gained traction due to global warming concerns, but neither wind nor solar can be deployed fast enough or at a scale large enough to replace Russian natural gas, regardless of the financial commitment. This winter, and for the foreseeable future, Europe will need to produce fossil fuels, or find alternate supplies for fossil fuels. LNG is a possibility, and Germany recently signed a supply deal with Qatar, but even if supplies can be had immediately, LNG throughput is limited by the need to offload and re-gasify the liquefied product at purpose-built facilities.
And the Germans are buying this capability, with Reuters reporting that the nation expects to deploy up to six floating storage and re-gasification units over four sites by the end of 2023. Two new units are operating now.
Germany’s three nuclear plants have been licensed to continue operating through the winter, although the German Green party is demanding that the units be shut down in April of next year. The European environmental movement is far from unified about this, since the absence of nuclear power will likely be made up with fossil fuel combustion, and even Greta Thunberg has called out Germany for ditching nuclear power in favor of coal.
And coal will be a major energy source for Germany this winter, with six gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity staying online, in a deferral of the nation’s plan to eliminate the fossil fuel. Greenhouse gas targets? They’re out the window now, and as Germany takes these extreme measures to ensure national survival this winter, no one has yet focused on what happens after the Russia/Ukraine war is over.
The likelihood of Russia becoming a major supplier of energy to Europe is extremely low, even if peace in Ukraine is forthcoming, in no small part due to the destruction of one of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear is not likely to make a serious comeback in Germany, and alternates like wind and solar are too intermittent and too thin on the ground to become a serious part of the German energy mix for the foreseeable future. Supplies are disrupted there, but the simple fact is, there is enough fossil fuel derived energy to prevent a crisis in Europe this winter.
It’s also clear that greenhouse gas emissions limits will not be met now, or in the near future. It’s possible that there never was any hope that the projected greenhouse gas limits were attainable, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has now made this crystal clear. The European economy, and the world’s, still runs on fossil fuels. And it will for decades yet.
